How are the rates calculated?
For each category we apply three independent factors: the share of spending that is imported, the weighted-average effective tariff rate on those imports, and the share of tariff cost that reaches consumer prices.
Per-category tariff cost
Each factor is between 0 and 1. Sources: Yale Budget Lab, USDA ERS (food import shares), PIIE (Section 301 schedule), Tax Foundation.
Why three separate factors?
Collapsing them into a single "effective rate" would hide where the number comes from. Splitting them lets a reviewer audit each input against its source, and lets us run counterfactuals like "what if passthrough drops to 50%?"
The national average benchmark of $1,400 is the midpoint of Yale Budget Lab's $1,200–$1,600 central household estimate. We treat anything within ±5% of that as "at the average."
How do US tariffs affect my household in 2026?
Tariffs are taxes on imports, paid at the border by US importers and largely passed through to consumers as higher shelf prices. Most academic estimates of the recent US tariff schedule put the annual household burden between $1,200 and $2,600, depending on income and consumption mix. Lower-income households tend to spend a higher share of income on tariff-heavy categories like apparel and toys, so the burden as a share of income is regressive even when the dollar amount is smaller.
Which categories are hit hardest by tariffs?
Apparel and footwear are nearly 100% imported and face Section 301 tariffs averaging in the mid-twenties. Toys and consumer electronics are similar. Furniture and home goods sit in the middle. Groceries and dining out are the lightest because most US food is domestically produced.
Why doesn't passthrough hit 100%?
In the short run, importers absorb some of the cost from contracts and inventories, and dealers in categories like autos absorb more via margin compression. Yale Budget Lab's central assumption is roughly 90–95% passthrough on goods within a year, with autos closer to 70%. Over multi-year horizons, passthrough approaches 100%.
Frequently Asked Questions
Independent estimates put the average annual tariff cost at roughly $1,200 to $2,600 per US household, with a central estimate near $1,400. Yale Budget Lab, the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and the Tax Foundation all converge on this range using different methodologies. Your actual cost depends heavily on what you spend on imported-heavy categories like apparel, electronics, and toys.
Apparel, toys, and consumer electronics typically take the biggest hit because they have very high import shares (often 80–97%) combined with elevated Section 301 tariffs on China. Furniture and home goods also see large effects. Groceries are the lightest category — only about 16% of US food is imported, and most produce moves duty-free or at low rates.
Section 301 tariffs target China-origin goods to address unfair trade practices and intellectual property concerns. Section 232 tariffs target steel, aluminum, and autos on national security grounds. Both stack on top of normal MFN duties, so the effective rate on a Chinese-made item can run 25% or higher. The IEEPA tariffs added in 2025 layer on top of these.
No — and this calculator accounts for that. Yale Budget Lab and academic studies find roughly 90–95% of tariff costs on goods get passed to consumers within a year for most categories, but autos run closer to 70% because dealer margins absorb more. Some costs are absorbed by importers or foreign suppliers in the short run, especially when contracts and inventories cushion the transition.
Because tariffs only touch the imported portion of what you buy. About 16% of US food spending is on imports — mostly produce, seafood, and specialty items. So even a 12% tariff on imported food only adds about 1.8% to your overall grocery bill. The effect is real but small compared to apparel or electronics, where almost everything is imported.
This is a model, not an audit. It applies category-level import shares, effective tariff rates, and passthrough assumptions from Yale Budget Lab, PIIE, and Tax Foundation to your spending. Real-world variance comes from the brands you buy, country of origin, and how quickly retailers update prices. Treat the result as a credible estimate within ±20%, not an exact bill.
The rates in this calculator were last refreshed in April 2026 using the most recent Yale Budget Lab analysis. We re-check at least once per year and after any major tariff policy change. The data sources are linked in the methodology so you can verify each input.
This v1 calculator uses national averages only. State-level tariff burden does vary — states with more imported-goods consumption or different vehicle preferences see different totals — but the difference is typically less than 15% from the national figure. State-level breakdowns are on our roadmap for v2.
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